Fed: Latest poll gives Labor the lead on minor-party preferences

AAP General News (Australia)
12-13-2003
Fed: Latest poll gives Labor the lead on minor-party preferences

CANBERRA, Dec 13 AAP - Labor's choice of Mark Latham as its new federal leader has
given the party a handy boost in primary support and a potential government-winning preference
flow from minor parties, the latest Morgan poll reveals.

But the government hasn't lost out entirely.

Its primary support has risen 1.5 percentage points to 41.5 per cent while Labor has
picked up three points to go to 41 per cent.

On a two-party preferred basis, Labor leads the government 52.5 to 47.5, an increase
of 0.5 per cent.

The big losers appear to be the minor parties, with Greens primary support slipping
three points to six per cent and the Australian Democrats losing one point to 2.5 per
cent.

One Nation appears to have received no sustained boost from the release of its founder
Pauline Hanson from jail. Its support has slipped from 4.5 to three per cent.

The Morgan poll of 987 electors was conducted on the weekend of December 6 and 7. That
followed the week in which Mark Latham was elected Labor leader and Democrats leader Andrew
Bartlett stood aside for drunkenly manhandling a woman Liberal Senator.

The previous Morgan poll was conducted on the weekend of November 29 and 30.

The poll shows minor party supporters are likely to direct their preferences to Labor
in potentially decisive numbers.

Democrat voters will give 75 per cent of second preferences to Labor and 25 per cent
to the coalition, up from 67.5 and 32.5 the previous week.

For Greens supporters, the inclination towards Labor is even greater, with 84.5 per
cent (up from 79.5) giving Labor their second preferences and 15.5 per cent (down from
20.5) preferring the Coalition.

Pollster Gary Morgan said Labor would have won a federal election held in early December,
on minor party preferences.

"While Mr Latham's elevation to ALP leader has seen an increase in primary support
for the ALP, it has also seen an increase in support for the government, with the losers
being the minor parties," he said in a statement.

Mr Morgan said those planning to vote Labor indicated they would do so because of issues
such as education and health and because of the new leader.

"I've always voted ALP but was disenchanted until Mark Latham was appointed leader,"

said one Labor supporter cited by Mr Morgan.

"I'm a big fan of the new leader. He's got balls. He'll have a go and make interesting
changes," another said.

Liberal supporters were unimpressed with Mr Latham and saw merit in stability.

"The Liberal Party has had one leader for so long. The Labor Party has chopped and
changed lately. It doesn't fill me with any confidence of their abilities," one said.

AAP mb/wjf

KEYWORD: POLL MORGAN LEAD

2003 AAP Information Services Pty Limited (AAP) or its Licensors.